More on Synthetics, Medal Count, Historic Farm for Sale
Courtesy of database maven Derek Simon at TwinSpires.com; we see over a very large sample size that pacing strategies are essentially identical when comparing synthetic surfaces to turf. Similarly, according to the Jockey Club in 2013 the fatalities are also nearly the same per 1,000 starts:
1.38 on Turf
1.22 on Synthetic
So for all you bleeding hearts, if you are so concerned about your horse’s skeletal well-being that you consider KEE’s move back to dirt just another instance of corporate greed – run your horses on turf. Simple. What is so natural about a horse running over crushed tires covered in plastic?
Now I rarely first point to greed when looking at someone’s actions, but Dale Romans exhibited a prime example of it over the past week at KEE. In a vain attempt to gain enough Derby points to make the starting gate, he ran Medal Count twice in 8 days – placing 2nd in the headline Bluegrass Stakes prep.
Romans enters several hundred races a year, and now he decides a horse can run back so soon? I undoubtedly agree most can, and should – but not for this blatantly selfish reason.
Thanks to the comment below, I had database virtuoso Derek Simon at TwinSpires analyze Mr. Romans’ starts from 2008-2013 here:
First column is starts, second column in winners, third column is winning percentage, fourth column is in the money percentage and final column is ROI per $2. Romans goes back on 10 days rest or less just 1% of the time in nearly 5,000 starts. Would be interesting to know the reasons behind the 1 time he went back in less than 5 days off, a winner paying $9.00. Anyone slick enough to look that up? (Not you, Derek)
Trainers in the audience please help me out: why would you see these stats and notice superior percentages when you go back in 21 days or sooner, yet continue to make the majority of your starts with 31+ days of rest?
Here’s a quick Derby tip from Mr. Simon: Horses that recorded an ESR of +1 or greater in their final Derby prep are just 2-of-107 (-81% ROI) since 1992. Perhaps you can throw out 20% of the field already. (see http://www.simonspeedrations.com for more info)
Ok, fun stuff: